CARIBOO FIRE CENTRE WEATHER FORECAST

ISSUED:  1030 am Friday, July 8, 2022

VALID:  Through Sunday, July 17, 2022

SYNOPSIS:  An upper low located near Terrace this morning will move ENE to lie near the north end of Williston Lake by late this afternoon. This will allow a slightly drier and slightly more stable W to SW upper flow to become established across the fire centre today. That being said, there is still enough instability and moisture to create isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the NE half of the fire centre.  Winds will generally be light from the west to southwest with afternoon gusts into the 25 to 40 km/h range.  Highs will again be limited to the upper teens to low 20s. Minimum RHs trending lower across the south with a few stations likely to drop into the 25 to 30% range.  The upper low will move to near Fort Nelson tonight.  Expect isolated evening thundershowers over the wet belt with a clearing trend setting in overnight. Good RH recoveries tonight with lows of 8 to 13 C. Winds tonight will be light SW. The upper low moves into northern Alberta by Saturday afternoon leaving a drier W to SW upper flow across the fire centre. Variable cloudiness can be expected with any shower or thundershower activity limited to the wet belt.  Temperatures will remain a bit below seasonal averages with highs near 20C and Rhs will be in the 25 to 45 % range.

3 TO 5-DAY OUTLOOK…SUNDAY TO TUESDAY… A drier W to SW upper flow remains across the fire centre on Sunday with high temperatures in the low 20s and RHs falling a bit from Saturday's values.  By Monday an upper ridge is expected to begin building northward into southeastern BC bringing mainly sunny warm dry conditions to the 100 Mile zone. Meanwhile, an upper low approaching the Alaska Panhandle is likely to spread clouds, cooler temps, and isolated showers to the western Quesnel and northwestern Chilcotin. This pattern will continue on Tuesday as a cold front pushes into the NW portions of the fire centre and the upper ridge holds over the 100 Mile zone.

CONFIDENCE:  Good confidence in the drying trend through the weekend. Confidence is fair as to how the battle between the building upper ridge and the approaching cold front will play out over the fire centre. 

WINDS ALOFT:  Puntzi Mountain

2000 m W 10. 3000m SW 25.

6 TO 10 DAY WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY of next week:  The latest long-range models move the ridge over southeastern BC into the prairies as the upper low off the coast moves into central BC. This puts the fire center under a southwest flow of patch moist and unstable air. The result will be mainly cloudy cool showery conditions returning to all zones of the fire centre. Beyond Wednesday confidence falls to poor as models continue to flip flop between a strong blocking ridge and a progressive pattern of alternating ridges and troughs.

WEST OF FRASER

TODAY:  Variable cloudiness.  Isolated showers. Isolated afternoon thundershowers over northern sections. Winds SW 10-20 G 35 km/h.  Brief local gusts to 50 km/h near convection. MAX TEMP: 17 to 21 C. MIN RH: 28-45%.

TONIGHT:  Isolated evening showers over the north then clearing late this evening. MIN TEMP: 7-10 C. MAX RH: 75-100%.

SATURDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. Winds  SW 15-25 G 35-40  km/h. MAX TEMP: 18 to 22 C. MIN RH: 30-40%.

FORECAST  LIGHTNING/DRY LIGHTNING   

Today: Isolated/Nil

Tonight: Nil/Nil

Tomorrow: Nil/Nil

Venting: Good during the afternoon due to daytime heating and gusty winds. 

EAST OF FRASER

TODAY:   Mainly cloudy.  Isolated showers. Scattered afternoon thundershowers mainly over northern sections. Winds S-SW 8-15 G 30 km/h.  Brief local gusts to 50 km/h near convection.  MAX TEMP: 18 to 21 C. MIN RH: 25 south to  55% north.

TONIGHT:  Mainly cloudy with isolated evening showers or thundershowers. Partial clearing overnight.  Winds light SW.  MIN TEMP: 9-12C. MAX RH: 80-100%.

SATURDAY:  Variable cloudiness. Risk of an afternoon thundershower over the wet belt. Winds S-SW 8-15 G 30 km/h.   MAX TEMP: 18 to 21 C. MIN RH: 25 % south to  55% north.

FORECAST  LIGHTNING/DRY LIGHTNING   

Today:  Scattered/Nil

Tonight: Isolated/Nil

Tomorrow: Risk/Nil

Venting:  Good during the afternoon due to daytime heating and gusty winds. 

Lightning forecast definitions: